�鶹��ý

As a record-breaking El Niño continues to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean, the world is entering uncharted territory.��

The weather phenomenon, marked by warming of surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific, is very likely to become the strongest El Niño in recorded history. Typically, a half-degree Celsius (0.9°F) increase in ocean temperature is enough to qualify as an El Niño. But scientists predict that, as this one peaks around November, the ocean could warm by as much as 3.5°C (6.3°F) above the average of the past three decades. That would make this El Niño 40% stronger than the previous record set during the winter of 2023–24.��

As El Niño changes atmospheric circulation, officials around the world, from Britain to Sri Lanka, are and encouraging people to .��

“El Niño has a ripple effect on weather all around the globe,” said climate scientist Kris Karnauskas, associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and a fellow at the Cooperative Institute for Research and Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at �鶹��ý. “That ripple effect is like a wave that travels through the atmosphere away from the eastern Pacific Ocean and impacts many places far and wide.”

As this El Niño peaks in the coming weeks, Karnauskas busts five common myths about the “Godzilla” climate phenomenon and explains what Coloradans can expect.

Myth No. 1: El Niño is a storm.��

El Niño is not a storm. It’s a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, which can lead to more intense storms developing in some regions, but it by itself is not a storm.

Myth No. 2: El Niño will bring Colorado lots of snow this winter.

Colorado could have a great snow season this year—or another poor one like last year. Either way, El Niño is likely to play only a minor role in Colorado’s winter weather.

The impact of El Niño is��like skipping a rock on a lake. The rock hits certain areas and skips over others, and Colorado is located in a region that typically gets skipped over.��

Across the United States, El Niño typically brings warmer conditions to the Pacific Northwest and more precipitation to the South. Colorado sits between these two regions, where the influence of El Niño is much weaker.��

��

A map of the U.S., Canada, and Central and part of South America showing the effects of El Niño during winter in the Northern Hemisphere. (Credit: NOAA)

Historical precipitation data from previous strong El Niño events also show no clear causal relationship between El Niño and Colorado’s winter precipitation.

During the 2023–24 strong El Niño, Colorado’s snowpack reached 31% above average. But during the previous strong El Niño, in the winter of 2015–16, snowpack was��. Both winters saw precipitation fluctuations, and the differences show that Colorado’s snowpack is not consistently correlated with El Niño.

Myth No. 3: El Niño will cause more wildfires in Colorado.��

Because El Niño will likely have minimal impact on temperature and precipitation in Colorado, it won’t affect our wildfire activity much. Across the country, El Niño can bring more rainfall to the Southwest, including Southern California, which could help reduce wildfire risk. In the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, warmer and drier conditions could contribute to more wildfires.��

Myth No. 4: El Niño will cause more hurricanes.��

During an El Niño event, we typically have far fewer Atlantic hurricanes. There has been only one hurricane formed in the Atlantic so far this year, , since the beginning of the hurricane season in June, which is pretty unusual. By mid-October of a normal year, we’d have about six hurricanes.

El Niño strengthens wind shear, the change in wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere, in the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to organize into hurricanes.

On the flip side, the Pacific Ocean usually sees more hurricanes during an El Niño. In September, for example, Hurricane Polo strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours and made landfall in Mexico’s Baja California. Such rapid intensification requires an abundance of warm ocean water beneath the surface, the kind of conditions that can develop in the Pacific during a strong El Niño.��

Myth No. 5: El Niño is caused by climate change.��

El Niño is part of a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean that has been going on for at least millions of years. The cycle switches between a warm phase, El Niño, and a cool phase known as La Niña, typically every two to seven years. But scientists are still studying whether climate change is altering El Niño, including whether a warming planet could make El Niño events more intense or frequent.

Beyond the myths: What you should know

��

Strong El Niño in 2016 contributed to Ethiopia's worst drought in 50 years. (Credit: EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid)

While Colorado may experience little direct influence from El Niño, people in other parts of the world could face significant impacts, Karnauskas said. Southern African countries, for example, could experience severe drought, potentially disrupting food supplies across the region. Indonesia is expected to become particularly warm and dry, conditions that could increase dengue infections.

Globally, El Niño is also��. Along the Pacific coast from Mexico to Peru, sea levels are currently about 8 inches higher than normal. El Niño is also adding heat to an already warming planet. During the last strong El Niño in 2023-24, global temperatures broke records for 12 months in a row. This El Niño could push global temperatures to record levels again in the months ahead.

“We’re here in 2026 already experiencing the effects of long-term warming, declining marine ecosystems and sea level rises, and now El Niño is adding another layer on top,” Karnauskassaid. “Global warming certainly gives the impacts of El Niño a running start.”